Osteoradionecrosis (ORN) of the mandible is a severe complication following radiotherapy (RT). With a renewed interest in hypofractionation for head and neck radiotherapy, more information concerning ORN development after high fraction doses is important. The aim of this explorative study was to develop a model for ORN risk prediction applicable across different fractionation schemes using Equivalent Uniform Doses (EUD).

We performed a retrospective cohort study in 334 oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients treated with either a hypofractionated Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (HF-SBRT) boost or conventional Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT). ORN was scored with the CTCAE v5.0. HF-SBRT and IMRT dose distributions were converted into equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions (α/β = 0.85 Gy) and analyzed using EUD. The parameter a that led to an EUD that best discriminated patients with and without grade ≥ 2 ORN was selected. Patient and treatment-related risk factors of ORN were analyzed with uni- and multivariable regression analysis.

A total of 32 patients (9.6%) developed ORN grade ≥ 2. An EUD(a = 8) best discriminated between ORN and non-ORN (AUC = 0.71). In multivariable regression, pre-RT extractions (SHR = 2.34; p = 0.012), mandibular volume (SHR = 1.04; p = 0.003), and the EUD(a = 8) (SHR = 1.14; p < 0.001) were significantly associated with ORN.

Risk models for ORN based on conventional DVH parameters cannot be directly applied to HF-SBRT fractionation schemes and dose distributions. However, after correcting for fractionation and non-uniform dose distributions using EUD, a single model can distinguish between ORN and non-ORN after conventionally fractionated radiotherapy and hypofractionated boost treatments.