Locoregional failure (LRF) after breast-conserving therapy (BCT) is associated with increased risk of distant disease and death. The magnitude of this risk has not been adequately characterized in patients with lymph node-negative disease.

Our study population included 3,799 women randomly assigned to five National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project protocols of node-negative disease (ie, B-13, B-14, B-19, B-20, and B-23) who underwent lumpectomy and whole breast irradiation with or without adjuvant systemic therapy. Cumulative incidences of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) and other locoregional recurrence (oLRR) were calculated, along with distant-disease-free interval (DDFI) and overall survival (OS) after these events. Cox models were employed to model mortality by using clinical and pathologic factors jointly with these events.

Four hundred nineteen patients (11.0%) experienced LRF: 342 (9.0%) experienced IBTR, and 77 (2.0%) experienced oLRR. The 12-year cumulative incidences of IBTR and oLRR in patients treated with adjuvant systemic therapy were 6.6% and 1.8%, respectively. Overall, 37.1% of IBTRs and 72.7% of oLRRs occurred within 5 years of diagnosis. Older age, black race, higher body mass index (BMI), larger tumors, and occurrence of IBTR or oLRR were significantly associated with increased mortality. The 5-year OS after IBTR and oLRR were 76.6% and 34.9%, respectively. Adjusted hazard ratios for mortality associated with IBTR and oLRR were significantly higher in estrogen receptor (ER)-negative patients than in ER-positive patients (P = .002 and P < .0001, respectively). Patients with early LRF had worse OS and DDFI than those with later-occurring LRF.

Although LRF is uncommon in patients with node-negative breast cancer who are treated with lumpectomy, radiation, and adjuvant systemic therapy, those who do develop LRF have substantially worse OS and DDFI.