To determine the 12-year risk of developing an ipsilateral breast event (IBE) for women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast treated with surgical excision (lumpectomy) without radiation.

A prospective clinical trial was performed for women with DCIS who were selected for low-risk clinical and pathologic characteristics. Patients were enrolled onto one of two study cohorts (not randomly assigned): cohort 1: low- or intermediate-grade DCIS, tumor size 2.5 cm or smaller (n = 561); or cohort 2: high-grade DCIS, tumor size 1 cm or smaller (n = 104). Protocol specifications included excision of the DCIS tumor with a minimum negative margin width of at least 3 mm. Tamoxifen (not randomly assigned) was given to 30% of the patients. An IBE was defined as local recurrence of DCIS or invasive carcinoma in the treated breast. Median follow-up time was 12.3 years.

There were 99 IBEs, of which 51 (52%) were invasive. The IBE and invasive IBE rates increased over time in both cohorts. The 12-year rates of developing an IBE were 14.4% for cohort 1 and 24.6% for cohort 2 (P = .003). The 12-year rates of developing an invasive IBE were 7.5% and 13.4%, respectively (P = .08). On multivariable analysis, study cohort and tumor size were both significantly associated with developing an IBE (P = .009 and P = .03, respectively).

For patients with DCIS selected for favorable clinical and pathologic characteristics and treated with excision without radiation, the risks of developing an IBE and an invasive IBE increased through 12 years of follow-up, without plateau. These data help inform the treatment decision-making process for patients and their physicians.