Would detection of an adverse cytogenetic marker such as dup(1q) alone in the setting of MGUS satisfy criteria for a diagnosis of multiple myeloma?  

Short answer, no.Longer answer -The important transition between MGUS/SMM to MM is CRAB criteria (hypercalcemia, renal disease, anemia, bone lesions), OR the development of a myeloma defining events -- >60% clonal plasma cells on bone marrow, multiple lesions on MRI, or FLC ratio > 100.  ...